Executive Summary
Since the early 2010s, the Syrian arena has witnessed one of the most complex phases in its modern political and economic history. The prolonged internal conflict, initiated by the Syrian regime following the outbreak of the Syrian revolution, intertwined with multilayered external pressures—foremost among them the U.S. sanctions regime, which evolved from limited political pressure tools into an integrated network of economic, financial, and diplomatic restrictions. These sanctions contributed to reshaping Syria’s economic structure and redirecting the path of its regional and international relations. Their effects extended not only to the former political regime but also to Syrian society and its economic and service institutions.
Since Syria was placed on the list of “State Sponsors of Terrorism” in 1979, the country has been subjected to a series of sanctions that initially carried a symbolic political nature, before gradually expanding to include the oil and energy sectors, banking, aviation, and foreign trade. This culminated in the 2019 Caesar Act, which represented the peak of U.S. legislative escalation against the Syrian regime under President Bashar al-Assad. With its implementation in 2020, Washington shifted from political pressure to comprehensive economic suffocation by targeting state institutions and external support networks. This raised broad debates about the legality, humanitarian limits, and effectiveness of these sanctions in achieving their declared goal of “holding the regime accountable for war crimes.”
However, subsequent developments after the fall of the previous regime in early 2025 and the emergence of the new Syrian state led by a transitional government in Damascus marked a decisive turning point in the trajectory of U.S. sanctions. This period witnessed a comprehensive review of U.S. policy toward the Syrian file, culminating in President Donald Trump’s announcement of the activation of exemptions within the Caesar Act and the issuance of General License No. 25 in May 2025. This decision enabled temporary easing of secondary sanctions and reopened limited channels for commercial and humanitarian engagement. It represented the beginning of a strategic shift from a policy of total isolation to one of conditional openness, paving the way for Syria’s gradual reintegration into the Arab and international systems.
The significance of this study lies in the fact that analyzing U.S. sanctions on Syria cannot be separated from the broader framework of U.S.–Middle Eastern relations, nor from the legal and political dimensions of economic sanctions as instruments of foreign policy. Just as sanctions served as pressure tools on countries such as Iran, Iraq, and Cuba, their application to Syria—amid civil war and comprehensive economic collapse—has made the Syrian case a complex model for examining the interaction between sanctions and political transition. Thus, analyzing their historical evolution, legal dimensions, and economic and social impacts provides a deeper understanding of ongoing transformations in U.S. policy and the future of the Syrian economy after 2025.
Within this context, the study poses the following central question:
To what extent have U.S. sanctions—particularly the Caesar Act and its amendments—contributed to reshaping the Syrian economy and altering the balance of power within the state and society?
From this main question emerge several sub-questions:
- What is the historical trajectory of U.S. sanctions on Syria from 1979 to the transitional phase of 2025?
- What political and legal foundations did the U.S. administration rely on when imposing and modifying these sanctions?
- How did the sanctions, especially the Caesar Act, affect the economic and social conditions under the previous regime and the new state?
- Which actors within the United States influence the design and direction of sanctions policy?
- What is the difference between lifting sanctions and amending the Caesar Act, and what are the implications of each in light of Syria’s political transformation?
This study aims to analyze the historical and political development of U.S. sanctions on Syria and to examine their economic and social impact across two major phases: the period of the former regime and the period of the new state, with emphasis on the Caesar Act as the most critical turning point in Damascus–Washington relations. It also seeks to assess the prospects of modifying or fully lifting the sanctions, identify the internal and external factors shaping U.S. decision-making on this issue, and evaluate the real implications of these policies for the Syrian economy and reconstruction opportunities.
To continue reading the study, please click here.
The U.S. Decision-Making Process
